Traffic Densities
First, the grid is 24" squares. It's a rather big yard for a non-club model.
Traffic density is the real issue isn't it? Since I'm not modeling a particular prototype, I'm free to set the density to what ever works. A good question is, how much traffic is required on the track(s) from Bear Creek heading west to Junction City, Albany Jct, and Browning to balance out what the yard crews are capable of handling? This leads to other questions:
How long does an experienced yard crew take to deal with a train that terminates at the yard? Blocked and hodge podge numbers (I block trains leaving staging, but cars coming back on locals/turns can be a mess). Dealing with a train means sticking the caboose on the nearest caboose track, sorting the cars onto the class tracks and mt storage tracks, and sending the motive power over to the engine service area. I'm hoping that with two crews, one on each end of the yard, plus a hostler, this could be handled in around 15 minutes (wall clock time) assuming the cars are well blocked, or 20 to 25 minutes if they're not.
How long does an experienced yard crew take to build a departing train on an A/D track and add power and caboose to it? This should be faster than breaking down a terminating train since there is no classification involved (assuming the YM isn't a moron and the body tracks are kept well classified). I'm guessing 15 minutes or less (wall clock time).
How long does an experienced yard crew take to swap blocks with a through train? This will be highly dependent on where the cars in the arriving block go and where the outbound cars come from. Experience on what's built so far in the train room (using South Jackson yard) suggests somewhere between 5 minutes to 20 minutes depending on whether a helper needs to be called and added. Most trains should be in the 10 to 15 minute range.
Next question: How long does it take a train to emerge from staging at Browning or Albany Jct and run to Bear Creek? Estimating the distance from the staging access hole at Browning to Bear Creek yard at 43 squares x 2' is aproximately 86' or close to 1.5 miles. At a scale 30 mph this is 3 minutes assuming the train doesn't need to stop. At a scale 20 mph this is almost 5 minutes assuming no stopping. But is no stopping realistic?
If the yard can handle two trains every 15 minutes - one through and one that originates or terminates at the yard, that suggests a 7.5 minute train spacing. In practice, this is quite agressive for track warrants in dark territory. It's not exactly inconsequential even if everything was under CTC control. It also means the yard crews will be hopping!
I think it also means that only half of the trips from Browning to Bear Creek will be stop free. Maybe less than half.
This suggests that if I try to run the trackage from Bear Creek to Browning I may be clogging the mainline. I don't have a string diagram prepared, but that would be the next step and would reveal how many meets and their consequent delays would occur.
Let's try another way of looking at it.
Right now I have two miles of mainline with South Jackson, Mill Bend, Deschute Jct, and Oakhill on it between Salem and Pocatello staging (not including the length of the staging areas). The Deschutes branch line is about 1 mile in length from Deschutes Jct to but not including Descutes staging passing through the town of Redland.
I run a 4x fast clock for a 12 fast hour session working out to 3 real hours in an 'ideal' session. In this time we run 15 or 16 trains. Assuming we keep the same trains/hour density, how many trains would run on the 5 mile + 1.5 miles of branch full layout? Without going for rigorous mathematical proof I'm guessing
6.5 miles / 3 miles = 2.25 * 16 trains is 36 trains! Yow! That's a lot of trains! How many would pass through, arrive or terminate at Bear Creek? Perhaps 80% of them or roughly 28 trains. 28 trains in 3 hours is 9 trains per hour passing or interacting with Bear Creek yard. Assuming that 10% of those are passenger trains that don't do much at the yard and another 10% are freights that pass through without any consist changes that drops us down another 5 or 6 trains to 22 trains or 7 trains per hour. Obviously something has to give!
It turns out that while I can run a 15 train session in 12 fast hours with a 4x fast clock, the dispatcher *really* needs to know what they're doing. Issuing inefficient warrants, taking too long to figure which train to move next, or failing to coordinate with the South Jackson YM and sending too many trains into that cramped yard for it to handle all will cause trains to be delayed. Once the delays start, the line up is full/tight enough that it's really hard to catch up.
My crew and I have considered that a 25% reduction in train density reduces the trains through Bear Creek to 5 per hour. Now things are starting to sound more reasonable. However, as I mentioned before, I haven't done a string diagram for a 'full' session on a 'full' railroad. It might not be possible to have that many trains moving all at once. And the more simultaneous trains, the longer they wait for warrants. Perhaps another 5% or 10% reduction in train density would be good.
If, as I'm hoping, I make a switch to TT&TO operations then it's likely that train density may still be too high. I think that only experimentation will tell.
In any event, I think the capacity of the single track main is probably fairly well balanced with the ability of the Bear Creek yard crew to deal with the various trains swirling around and through their yard.
There is another wild card though. The design of the west end of the yard (at the blob) is such that two switch crews could operate there with one crew on the siding and the other taking the switch lead. I think this would be a desperate measure however as the space next to the ladder is already a bit shrunken and having two switch crews there, plus the ever present hosteler hovering about, plus other train crews either arriving/departing, or passing through the yard.
Best regards,
Charlie